Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.