A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
