Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean count of per-day killings each month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the least amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security experts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it might hide days when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.